Futenma

Okinawa's prominence at the front of Japanese newspapers has declined with former Prime Minister Hatoyama's resignation and new Prime Minister Kan's proposal to restart consumption tax increase debate (and lowering of corporate taxes). To some extent, the "Okinawa issue" of how to deal with U.S. troops in the prefecture will remain in the background, directly affecting only 1% of the Japanese population. Perhaps this is a good time to stand back and reflect.

Over the previous six months, opponents of the U.S. bases in Okinawa have received ample airtime to vent, thanks greatly to Social Democratic Party leader Mizuho Fukushima. It appeared that the whole prefecture was up in arms about the U.S. military's presence; several protest rallies claimed to tally up to 100,000 demonstrators. However, as many Japanese tabloids recounted, these figures were often rounded several times up. In fact, ultimately it was a minority, not a majority, that was against the U.S. military's presence.

This makes sense; Okinawa boasts three main industries - tourism, public works (subsidized by national government) and support of the U.S. military operations, as shown by the Bank of Japan. Agriculture and fisheries is a distant fourth. Removing any of the three economic pillars would be a disaster for the Okinawa people's livelihood, and this is greatly understood by the local population, regardless of any negative personal feelings to military presence, generally, and the U.S. military's presence, specifically. On a political level, local players understand Okinawa's geopolitical location in the Pacific and value as a naval base and military outpost, regardless of the operator's nationality. These local players spend their efforts on profiteering from this reality, not by fighting it. Over the decades, they have also become adept at linking support of the U.S. bases to public works subsidies, continuously winning national public funds as an economic remedy to the emotional burden of housing the U.S. military. Indeed, removal of the U.S. bases might also cause a reduction in national subsidies, in one blow felling two of the three economic pillars! The connection between military support and national subsidies was recently addressed by the Japan Times.

Of course, to remain in power, local politicians need to maintain a populist image, thus Okinawa Governor Imanime's public about-face on "nobody in Okinawa wants (a) large-scale reversion" of U.S. bases prior to publicly refuting this stance.